project risk management

Manage project risk & identify probability of a single outcome

Asta Risk Analysis is a project risk management software tool that can be added on to Asta Powerproject. Each task in the project plan is given a minimum, maximum and most likely duration. Asta Risk Analysis then executes a Monte Carlo Simulation. This chooses a single duration for each task at random (between the extremes given) and reschedules the plan. The result is remembered as a single iteration. Hundreds, if not thousands, of iterations are carried out and the result is a range of possible outcomes for the project – in time and cost. The resulting frequency distribution of possible outcomes allows a probability of success to be attributed to a single outcome. The best and worst outcome can be judged allowing you to manage the level of risk in the project.

Project risk management with Asta Risk Analysis

[+ zoom]	Define a range of task outcomes Record the minimum duration and maximum duration as well as the most likely duration. Alternatively the duration range can be defined as a range by using a Code Library.
[+ zoom] [+ zoom]	Calculate a distribution of possible project outcomes Calculate a distribution of possible project outcomes The Monte Carlo Simulation produces a distribution of possible outcomes. This is presented as a table. The table can be transformed into a graph by Pasting into Excel. A single result can be selected and used as the basis of a schedule.
[+ zoom]	Calculate the Criticality Index of a task A task may be critical on one iteration of the simulation and not critical on another. The number of times a task is critical is calculated and displayed as the Criticality Index. This gives an additional insight into the relative importance of different tasks in the schedule.